Temperature February, March and April 2023 Outlook
The figure below shows the seasonal multi-model forecast for temperature in February, March and April 2023 (FMA23) issued in January 2023. For FMA23, there is a probability of 40% or more that temperatures will be above normal in all regions across the Eastern Hemisphere. The highest probabilities for an above normal for the second part of the winter (FMA23) (60-70% or more) are in the eastern Siberian, Chukchi and Bering regions. Alaskan and western Canada region is expecting equal probability chances (white colour on the figure below) for temperature with an exception of the northern coastal regions where rather weak probabilities of ~40% above normal are forecast. For the eastern Canada region, multi model ensemble (MME) forecast is predicting equal probability chances for FMA23 temperature. Northern and eastern parts of this domain have above normal temperature expectancies for FMA23. For the western Nordic region, MME forecast is showing above normal probabilities of 40% or higher over the Island and Greenland while the eastern Nordic region has somewhat higher probability for such an outcome (i.e. 50% or more). Western Siberian region also has above normal probabilities of ~40% for the second part of the winter. These probabilities are even higher in the eastern portions of the region (50% or more). Eastern parts of the eastern Siberian and Chukchi and Bering regions have the highest probabilities for an above normal FMA23. The expectancies are of 60% and higher.
Precipitation February, March and April 2023 Outlook
The figure below shows the seasonal multi-model forecast for precipitation in February, March and April 2023 (FMA23) issued in January 2023. Over the largest part of the Arctic region, there are expectances for an above normal precipitation for the second part of the winter, FMA23. These probabilities are rather moderate (40% or more) for most of the Arctic domains with an exception of the central and southern parts of Chukchi and Bering region where the probability expectancies reach 50-60% or more. Indecisive precipitation results (white color on the figure below) for this FMA are forecast over the eastern Canada, western Nordic region and over central and western portions of the eastern Nordic region.
Outlook for Snow Water Equivalent for February, March and April 2023
Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) calibrated probabilistic seasonal forecast is performed with Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS). Over the Alaskan and western Canada region the SWE expectancies are mostly near normal (~40% probabilities). However, the above normal (40-50%) expectancies are forecast for the coastal parts of this region. The eastern Canada is also expecting near normal SWE probabilities (at least 40%) in the northern and southern continental parts, while above normal SWE is expected in the coastal regions of the Hudson Bay (up to 60%) as well as over the Canadian Archipelago (~80%). Northwestern parts of the eastern Canada have below normal SWE expectancies with 40-50% probability. Central part of the western Nordic region (Iceland) is expecting mostly above normal SWE with somewhat higher probabilities in the west (50% or more). Eastern Nordic region is expecting below normal SWE for the second part of the winter with at least 40% probabilities. An exception to this result are regions around the Baltic Sea where above normal SWE probabilities (at least 40%) are expected. Western Siberian region also has below normal (>50%) SWE expectancies in all parts of the region with the central and northern parts having the highest probabilities of at least 60% and higher. Eastern Siberia has very high expectancies for above normal SWE this FMA, more than 80% in the northern coastal and central parts of the region. Near normal snow amounts are expected over the regions’ southwest. Chukchi and Bering region also has high probability for above normal SWE (70-80%) over most of the area, only western parts of the region is expecting near normal SWE according to the MME forecast.